In the US-EU trade dispute, ambiguity itself has been weaponized, turning unclear rules into one of the most effective trade barriers. The vague definition of a “derivative” product and the unpredictable nature of the tariff list create a fog of uncertainty that is more challenging for businesses to navigate than a clear, high wall.
A traditional tariff is a transparent barrier. A company knows the height of the wall it must climb and can decide if it’s profitable to do so. The current US policy, however, is a constantly shifting maze with hidden traps. The biggest trap is the 200% penalty for a wrong turn.
This ambiguity forces businesses to be incredibly conservative. As the German motorcycle example shows, firms will choose a known, higher cost over an unknown, potentially catastrophic risk. This chokes off trade not by making it explicitly illegal or unprofitable, but by making it dangerously unpredictable.
Luisa Santos of BusinessEurope identified this as the core problem when she lamented the inability to “claim we have certainty.” The absence of clear, stable rules is a barrier in itself, as it paralyzes decision-making and chills investment.
By employing ambiguity as a tool, the US has created a powerful non-tariff barrier that is difficult to challenge through traditional trade dispute mechanisms. It’s not a specific rule that can be contested, but the very lack of clear rules, a strategy that has left European industries struggling to find a path forward.
