President Vladimir Putin has unilaterally set a new, albeit temporary, baseline for nuclear arsenals in the post-treaty era. By committing Russia to the expired New START limits for one year, he has established a benchmark that he is now challenging the United States to accept.
This new baseline was described as a foundation for predictability. Putin said the goal was to ensure “an acceptable level of predictability and restraint” by adhering to the well-understood figures of 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 delivery systems.
However, for this baseline to become a shared standard, it requires American agreement. Putin was explicit that this framework is only “viable” if the U.S. also adopts it and does not take actions that would create a different, higher baseline for strategic competition.
The Russian leader also suggested that this shared baseline could be the starting point for formal negotiations. He argued that it could create an atmosphere “conducive to substantive strategic dialogue,” allowing for talks on codifying this or another baseline in a future treaty.
For the next year, this de facto baseline will guide Russia’s policy. Its acceptance or rejection by the United States will define the strategic landscape and determine whether a new era of arms control or arms racing is about to begin.
